Hi Pieter,
I believe your negotiation will depend on a few things
a) Are you looking at clusters of countries or just individual markets
b)Is the pay TV market on the rise or decline in the markets you are interested in because of the democratization of content by access to the internet
c) What demography are you targeting and do they have the disposable income to afford premium content if that is what they are interested in
d)How deep is piracy in the fibre of society and is there any regulatory protection
e) Are you a monopoly in the markets you are interested in or some other providers will have access to the same content you negotiating for. This is expected to affect your retail price point and ultimately the cost of the renewal
f)Finally, how challenging is the barrier of entry into the markets you are targetting, you don’t want to invest heavily in content, only to have a new competitor enter the market and dilute your customer base
These are my thoughts.