I personally doubt that 5G will have a major impact on users at the edge, especially in underdeveloped countries where the backhaul to and between ISPs is severely limited. Compared to current wireless technology, 5G networks are expected to increase data throughput by a factor of 10 – bringing multi-gigabit speeds to mobile devices. That means that 5G is well-suited for IoT devices, but it’s far from the most important feature. For the IoT to grow as expected, 5G networks will need to handle far greater device density, and it appears that they can. The 5G specification indicates that 1 million connected devices per .98 square kilometres will be possible, compared with only 2,000 today, and this means that 5G will require the buildout of literally hundreds of thousands of new wireless antennas in neighbourhoods, cities, and towns. A cellular small cell or another transmitter will be placed every two to ten homes according to estimates, and this is not going to come cheap!
As more IoT devices come to market, the strain on the global Internet will become more apparent. So, too, will the relative merits of the varied approaches that have been taken to upgrade global infrastructure. The race is already on. Estimates indicate an expected 125 billion IoT devices to be online by 2030, and current networks are nowhere near ready to accommodate them. In addition, current demand for fibre-optic cable is outstripping supply on the backbone, so it is far from clear if the pace of expansion can even be increased to match the number of devices connected to the access infrastructure. Only time will tell if a combination of upgrades, innovation, and more than a little luck will be enough to sustain the IoT future. If not, we can all look forward to nothing more than a frustrating experience with the BoT—Bottleneck of Things.